Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.578469 2.066069 2.716852 3.669126 5.062108e+00 7.083444 10.352514
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.030005 1.522572 2.291905 3.644323 6.109825e+00 10.752523 21.148610
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.789213 1.299047 2.218231 4.149784 8.585582e+00 19.861214 58.538041
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.613139 1.107020 2.118306 4.632458 1.193501e+01 37.994108 196.181821
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.494222 0.970729 2.070115 5.300024 1.738030e+01 82.531511 1039.467426
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.401347 0.848773 1.998398 5.959114 2.521872e+01 196.004570 12090.271785
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.309768 0.691022 1.751796 5.887251 3.095659e+01 393.779286 424480.633148
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.238289 0.554083 1.489866 5.528334 3.525033e+01 747.647824 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.197645 0.481940 1.388598 5.813855 4.773909e+01 2287.270876 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.173959 0.447422 1.396142 6.763416 7.769360e+01 16402.283830 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.157248 0.426864 1.447421 8.229331 1.430147e+02 829808.059123 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.137129 0.387340 1.398592 9.028465 2.270578e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.113878 0.330771 1.249336 8.862902 3.017960e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.094020 0.278854 1.089812 8.320928 3.659481e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.083491 0.256665 1.064722 9.283157 6.827992e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.074138 0.235270 1.030016 10.176211 1.311697e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.066979 0.219682 1.018246 11.547316 3.103360e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.060507 0.204380 0.997734 12.893691 8.140574e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.052560 0.180001 0.900602 12.405827 1.285545e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.045254 0.156131 0.791651 11.294785 1.581312e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.040824 0.143540 0.753205 11.783580 4.116024e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.038262 0.138435 0.765656 13.868515 3.791456e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.036450 0.136157 0.799507 17.248889 1.300714e+08 NaN NaN